Demographic Decline: The Most Affected French Academies

Nearly 1.7 million students less by 2035, this is the demographic vertigo announced by the Ministry of National Education in a recent study. While the trend is national, it will not affect all regions in the same way, creating a new educational map of France.

Declining Birth Rates Disrupt School Enrollment

This is no longer just an intuition, but a documented statistical reality by the Directorate of Evaluation, Forecasting, and Performance (DEPP) on April 7, 2026. Between 2010 and 2025, the number of births in France has dropped by 24%. This significant trend logically ends up impacting school enrollment. In ten years, approximately one in six students will disappear from the registers. The Minister of National Education, Édouard Geffray, even speaks of demographic vertigo to describe this wave that is about to crash onto the educational system.

The first level of education, which includes preschool and elementary school, is on the front lines. It is estimated that it will lose more than 930,000 students by 2035. The second level, which includes middle and high school, will follow the same path with a projected decrease of 740,000 students. This overall decline of 14.2% in the school population is not a distant future. The effects are already palpable and will intensify very quickly.

Academies Most Exposed to Enrollment Declines

In the first level of education (preschool and elementary), which is the first level affected by the decline in births, some academies are recording particularly strong projected declines.

The Academy of Paris ranks first in this classification with a projected decrease of 29.3% in enrollment. It is followed by the Academy of Nancy-Metz (-22.1%) and the Academy of Lille (-20.7%). These territories face major challenges for the educational network in the coming years.

In the second level of education (middle and high schools), the downward trend is also widespread across almost the entire country. The academies in the north and east of France, such as Lille, Reims, and Dijon, anticipate significant declines, following the trends already observed in the first level.

Notable Exceptions and More Stable Situations

At the other end of the spectrum, the landscape is radically different. The academies of Mayotte and Guyana stand out as notable exceptions. They are the only ones expected to see an increase in their school enrollment by 2035, contrary to the national trend.

Moreover, some geographical areas show greater resilience to this "demographic vertigo". In the first level of education, academies such as Versailles, Nice, or Nantes are expected to experience more moderate declines, around 11 to 12%. These figures reflect the great diversity of local dynamics, where disparities can even exist within the same department, making dialogue between the state and local elected officials essential to adapt the educational offer to the real needs.

Local Management Will Be Key for Parents

The ministry assures that mayors will have the final say on the closure of their schools, at least until the start of the 2026 school year. This means that dialogue with local officials will become even more central. Tools such as Rural Dynamics Observatories have been established so that decisions are not imposed from above, but discussed territory by territory.

Fewer students also present an opportunity to rethink supervision and offer more peaceful learning conditions. While some departments like Creuse or Côtes-d’Armor will need to be particularly inventive to maintain a coherent educational network, this forced transformation could also be the starting point for a more flexible school system, better adapted to the geographical realities of each family.